From South Texas Money Management, an asset management and investment advisory firm with a great track record of being correct. Their Q2 letter to clients states:

“We have modified our outlook to a “square root” recovery for the economy.  In other words, now out of recession, we expect a slow and deliberate growth pattern for the balance of the year.  We are not forecasting a double dip in the economy (a return to recessionary conditions), and we are also highly confident that the broad stock market will not return to the levels seen in 2008 and 2009.

The stock market correction which has occurred during the past three months is reflecting this downshift in economic growth-a downshift exacerbated by the Gulf oil spill.  It is no wonder that consumer confidence has fallen significantly over the past weeks.  The public has been pummeled this year with sweeping governmental legislation and mandates that are unprecedented.  In spite of this, the chief executives of big companies are getting more upbeat.  The Business Roundtable Index of CEO optimism rose significantly in the second quarter, meaning an improved outlook for sales and hiring in their companies over the next six months. View the Report

The Atlas of Giving is reporting that 2010 giving through June is up 8.3% but that the growth is slowing dramatically. Our current Atlas forecast is projecting flat charitable giving for the next six months and for a decline of 0.9% for the next twelve months. However, as enthusiasts for charitable giving and its benefits, we are hopeful that some good news like this will bring about an upbeat, updated forecast in the coming months.